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The Public Affairs Update is your weekly insight, perspective and analysis on politics in British Columbia and Canada. This newsletter is brought to you by the largest, and most broadly-based business organization in the province, the BC Chamber of Commerce – the Voice of Business in BC.
In the run-up to and during the BC election on May 14, 2013, we will provide special editions of our Public Affairs Update. These reports, prepared by Fleishman-Hillard, will provide information on campaign developments, events, polling, media analyses and industry-specific information.
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| Post-Leaders’ Debate Analysis |
 Rarely do election debates decide the outcome of campaigns. In the case of this week’s (and the election’s only televised) debate, the outcome may best be described as momentum. According to opinion polls, the NDP may have won the debate by a small margin, but the BC Liberals seem to be the ones coming out of it with a spring in their step.
Polling now has the BC Liberals gaining on the NDP. This may be explained by the focus in the campaign – and about two thirds of the debate – on the economy. This plays to the perceived strength of the BC Liberals and, regardless of the performance of the individual party leaders, deflects from the NDP’s call for a change.
A middling performance by the BC Conservative leader and a somewhat “free ride” during the debate for Green Party leader, Jane Sterk also helped the BC Liberals in the aggregate. Following the debate, voters considering abandoning the BC Liberals to vote Conservative will have little reason to do so. On the other side of the equation, very few Green supporters will have reason to vote NDP after watching Jane Sterk’s relatively strong performance.
As the campaign proceeds, the televised leaders’ debate may turn out to be the pivot point when the election, considered by some a foregone conclusion, became a horse race. In the remaining 10 days of the election, the BC Liberal strategy should be straightforward: continue campaigning in the same fashion. After all, it seems to be working.
By next week at this time, and another round of polling, we will be able to determine if the BC Liberal gains continue. Should this occur, focus will turn to the “ground game” and voter turn-out because at that point, any adjustment in strategy will be too late for both parties. |
| This Week in the Polls – BC NDP leads by 7 points |
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 With less than two weeks to go before election day, the New Democrats are holding on to a higher retention rate than their main rivals, but this number has fallen to 76 per cent.
The opposition party maintains leads in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, and British Columbians prefer change over the continuation of the BC Liberal government by a 2-to-1 margin.
However, the NDP lost ground in the Southern Interior, and saw a noticeable drop in the approval rating for Adrian Dix.
BC Conservatives Source: Angus Reid
BC Greens
BC NDP
BC Liberals |
| Weekly Analysis: BC Liberals |
 Rather than wait for the headline, the BC Liberals purchased an advertisement on the front of a commuter newspaper claiming Premier Clark was the “comeback kid”, and that a post-debate poll claimed her “most premier-like”. The NDP, critical of the tactic, later dropped the matter once it was revealed that the federal NDP had used the same approach.
While Party leaders stuck to their respective campaigns’ messages, notably offside were NDP candidates Charlie Wyse and Jane Shin. Wyse, during an all candidates’ debate, said the NDP would institute a two year moratorium on natural gas fracking pending a review. Shin was called out by the BC Liberals for “doctoring” her resume to (falsely) give voters the impression she had practiced as a physician in Canada.
Top of mind for most pundits and the media was that by the end of the week, there was a narrowing gap – now seven points (or less) compared to 14 or more at the start of the campaign – in voter intention among British Columbians between the two major parties. The narrowing gap and potential for the BC Liberals to rebound, dominated commentary about the election by week’s end.
The BC Liberals will continue to campaign repeating the refrain that the NDP can’t be trusted to keep BC’s “fragile” economy on the right track. There is some evidence that this message is resonating with voters. It is an open question as to whether after three consecutive majority terms this message will prevail over the NDP’s message of “change for the better”.
It is increasingly apparent that the final result of this election will be much closer than most had expected. Heading into the last full week of the campaign, any major errors by either of the two major parties will likely mean spending the next four years in opposition. |
| Weekly Analysis: BC NDP |
Adrian Dix began the week with what the NDP and many in the media considered a solid performance in the campaign’s only televised leaders’ debate. He repeated his now-familiar campaign message that this election is a choice between “more of the same” with the BC Liberals, or “change for the better” with the NDP. To underscore his point, he talked on the one hand about his plans to expand skills training, improve health care and protect the environment, while on the other challenging Christy Clark on her economic record, fiscal policy and success of the Jobs Plan.
The NDP may have been satisfied with Dix’s performance, with some post-debate polls showing that up to 35% of viewers felt that Dix won the debate. Having said that, immediate post-debate poll numbers did not translate into an overall advantage among BC voters. A new round of public opinion polls show that the election race is getting tighter, with the NDP still ahead, but with their lead down to single digits.
Dix’s challenge in the campaign’s last 10 days is to solidify his party’s current vote in key ridings where even the smallest margin can swing seats from the government to the NDP. Watch for the NDP to downplay the polls publicly and take a two-pronged approach between now and voting day: they will work to neutralize BC Liberal claims that the NDP poses a risk to jobs and the economy by highlighting Dix’s support for LNG, mining, forestry, tourism, high-tech and film, while at the same time, putting sharper focus on the BC Liberal government’s record, and reminding voters about the NDP’s impetus for change.
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Media Analysis: Clark maintains share of voice lead over Dix
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| Over the past week (April 26 – May 3), which included a televised leaders’ debate, Christy Clark regained her overall share of voice lead in both traditional and social media. Clark now holds a 16 per cent lead over Dix (58 and 42 per cent share of voice, respectively).
Source: Sysomos |
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| This weekly report produced for the BC Chamber of Commerce by Fleishman-Hillard. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information included in this publication as of the date of issue, events and government policies are subject to frequent change. Therefore, the BC Chamber of Commerce and Fleishman-Hillard cannot assume any responsibility for actions taken solely or principally on the basis on the information contained herein. |
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